United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026

What the source reports

Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook , August 2026 Note: 1H2026=first half of 2026 We forecast U.

marketed natural gas production will average 122.

5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 118.

5 Bcf/d set in 2025, in our August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In the first half of 2026 (1H26), marketed natural gas production averaged 121.

6 Bcf/d) more than the same period in 2025.

Most of this expansion is concentrated in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville region in Louisiana and Texas.

The United States was the world’s largest producer of natural gas from 2009 through 2024, the most recent year for which we have global natural gas production data.

We forecast Permian gas production will average 29.

2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% more than in 2025.

In the Permian region, natural gas production is driven primarily by associated gas produced during crude oil extraction and is supported by crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose from an average of $65/barrel (b) in 2025 to an average of $84/b through July 2026, exceeding the region’s breakeven price—the minimum price needed for an operation to cover its costs.

Oil industry executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy survey reported the two largest basins in the Permian had breakeven prices of $69/b (Midland Basin) and $63/b (Delaware Basin) in 2026.

The relatively high prices support oil-directed drilling in the Permian region and the resulting rise in both crude oil and natural gas production.

In addition to crude oil prices, a steadily increasing gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) in the Permian is contributing to growth in Permian natural gas production.

As more oil and natural gas are produced, pressure within the reservoir declines.

Natural gas is easier to produce at lower pressures than oil, so the GOR increases.

In the Haynesville region, natural gas production increased by 1.

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