SPACEX · NASDAQ: SPCX
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Research
SpaceX combines launch services, Starlink connectivity and Super Intelligence infrastructure and software. Q3 2026 brought $14.575 billion of revenue and a return to operating profit, alongside $19.593 billion of cash capital spending. The investment question is how growth turns into cash returns per share.
- Latest financial period
- Q3 2026
- Latest filing
- Oct 20, 2026
- Research updated
- Oct 21, 2026
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Reported evidence
Latest SPCX financial snapshot
Q3 2026 · filed Oct 20, 202602
Latest filing analysis
What changed in the latest reported period
Q3 2026 revenue reached $14.575 billion, up 161.4% year over year and 86.5% from Q2, driven by Super Intelligence and Connectivity.
GAAP operating income was $2.791 billion and net income was $4.404 billion; diluted EPS was $0.35. Below-operating-income items helped lift net income above operating profit.
Super Intelligence revenue reached $7.560 billion, including compute infrastructure, models, applications and the acquired Cursor business. It is not a standalone measure of Grok revenue.
Connectivity revenue reached $5.248 billion. Starlink consumer subscribers rose to 13.6 million, while monthly consumer ARPU was $69, compared with $66 in Q2 and $83 a year earlier.
Quarterly cash capital spending was $19.593 billion. Q3 operating cash flow derived from nine-month less first-half reports was $9.631 billion, leaving simplified free cash flow of negative $9.962 billion.
03
BasisPilot
SPCX: turning AI and Starlink growth into cash returns
Compute demand versus profitable utilization
SI revenue rose to $7.560 billion and nameplate compute reached 1.7 GW. Installed capacity is not the same as billable utilization. Contract duration, delivery, customer acceptance and renewal pricing determine returns on that investment.
Starlink subscriber quality
Starlink added 1.6 million consumer subscribers sequentially to reach 13.6 million. Monthly consumer ARPU improved from $66 to $69 but remained below $83 a year earlier. Track pricing and customer mix alongside subscription counts.
Launch progress and costs
Space revenue was $1.767 billion, but segment operating loss was $7 million. Customer launches and internal satellite deployments have different economics; a successful mission does not establish sustained segment profitability.
Earnings quality
Net income of $4.404 billion exceeded operating income of $2.791 billion. Interest income, other income and a tax benefit contributed below operating income. Their repeatability should be assessed separately from the operating businesses.
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Revenue mix
How SpaceX makes money
Space covers launch and development; Connectivity includes Starlink consumer, enterprise and government services; Super Intelligence (SI, previously AI) includes compute infrastructure, models, applications and advertising. Q3 segment revenues sum to $14.575 billion. Do not add Cursor’s $608 million contribution again or equate all SI revenue with Grok.
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Cash flow and capital allocation
SPCX cash flow: investment still exceeds operating cash
Reconstructing the quarter
The release reports $13.097 billion of operating cash flow for nine months. Subtracting the Q2 10-Q’s $3.466 billion for six months gives $9.631 billion for Q3. PP&E purchases similarly equal $48.069 billion less $28.476 billion, or $19.593 billion. These quarterly amounts are derived, not nine-month figures relabeled as a quarter.
A defined free-cash-flow calculation
Operating cash flow less cash PP&E purchases gives simplified Q3 free cash flow of negative $9.962 billion. This analyst calculation excludes product rebates, finance-lease principal payments, other investing flows and noncash additions. It is not adjusted EBITDA or a company-guided cash-flow figure.
Where the investment goes
SI accounted for $16.444 billion of Q3 capital spending, versus $1.543 billion for Connectivity and $1.606 billion for Space. Depreciation follows cash spending over time, so a profitable quarter alone does not demonstrate recovery of the construction cost.
Acquisitions and per-share economics
Cursor contributed $608 million of post-acquisition revenue. The release also disclosed $23.4 billion of equity awards attributable to post-acquisition service, subject to future forfeitures. Growth should be assessed alongside compensation costs and dilution, rather than treating acquired revenue as costless organic expansion.
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Historical filings
SPCX earnings history
| Period | Revenue | YoY | EPS | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.6B | 161.4% | 0.35 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | — | -0.36 | Oct 20, 2026 |
The Q3 2025 row is a comparative period in the October 20, 2026 release, not a separate 2025 filing. Both rows preserve that source date. Revenue growth and operating margins are calculated from the disclosed amounts; EPS is GAAP diluted common-share EPS.
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Valuation context
What would justify SPCX’s valuation?
A useful valuation separates Space, Connectivity and SI, then accounts for capital needs, debt and diluted shares. The following are business assumptions, not a calculated fair value or price target; no live share price or undated multiple is used.
Connectivity’s recurring earnings
Value customer retention, ARPU and sustainable network margins together with satellite replacement and terminal costs. Segment operating income is not a segment cash-flow statement, so it cannot prove Starlink alone funds the group’s expansion.
SI’s infrastructure and software mix
Compute rental and software have different asset requirements and margins. Applying a software multiple to the whole SI segment would hide the physical infrastructure behind its sales. Utilization and cash returns after maintenance investment matter more than nameplate capacity alone.
Space milestones and shareholder claims
Launch reliability, external demand and development costs shape the Space business. Any group valuation must then account for debt, future financing and equity dilution. Annualizing a single quarter’s EPS can mislead when tax and other nonoperating items are material.
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SEC 13F
Institutional ownership
No matching position is available in BasisPilot's current 13F manager coverage.
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BasisPilot Insights
Latest SpaceX research
Peer comparisons: which businesses are comparable?
ORCL →
Compare AI infrastructure delivery, customer commitments and the timing of capital spending and collections; Oracle has a different software and cloud mix.
MSFT →Compare cloud capacity and AI monetization, while separating established software economics from physical compute expansion.
AMZN →AWS offers infrastructure context, but Amazon’s retail and advertising businesses make group margins a poor direct comparison.
Oct 21, 2026
SpaceX Q3 Earnings: AI Leads Revenue, Capital Returns Come Next
SpaceX revenue rose 161%, with AI leading sales and Starlink driving operating profit. We examine cash flow, compute contracts, capital returns and valuation.
Oct 10, 2026SpaceX's 800 MHz Spectrum Agreement Crushed Telecom Stocks — but Cell Towers Rallied
SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio. Why did AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fall sharply on October 9 while tower stocks gained? The answer lies in spectrum, execution and different network economics.
10
Decision support
SPCX: what could weaken the investment case?
Compute pricing, customer concentration or utilization can weaken while long-lived infrastructure still requires power, maintenance and replacement investment.
Capital spending can continue to exceed operating cash generation, drawing on reserves or requiring financing even during profitable quarters.
Starlink subscriber growth can coincide with lower ARPU or higher network costs; spectrum approvals and competition can change the economics.
Launch failures, development delays and regulatory requirements can disrupt both external missions and the deployment of the group’s own satellites.
Acquisition integration and equity compensation can dilute shareholders. Adjusted EBITDA excludes substantial costs and is not cash available for distribution.
Reported profit can fluctuate with taxes, interest and other income; a strong quarter does not establish a repeatable earnings run rate.
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FAQ
SPCX investor questions
What is SPCX?
SPCX is the Nasdaq ticker for Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX. Its disclosed businesses include Space, Connectivity and Super Intelligence.
What were SpaceX’s latest quarterly results?
For Q3 2026, ended September 30 and reported October 20, revenue was $14.575 billion, GAAP operating income was $2.791 billion, net income was $4.404 billion and diluted EPS was $0.35.
Is all Super Intelligence revenue from Grok?
No. The segment includes solutions and infrastructure, models, software applications and advertising. Cursor contributed $608 million after its August 14 acquisition; the reported categories do not isolate Grok’s revenue.
How large is Starlink’s consumer business?
At September 30, 2026, Starlink had 13.6 million consumer subscribers and quarterly consumer revenue of $3.121 billion. Consumer subscribers exclude managed enterprise and government contracts; the whole Connectivity segment generated $5.248 billion.
Was SpaceX free-cash-flow positive in Q3?
On a simplified basis, no. Nine-month operating cash flow of $13.097 billion less first-half cash flow of $3.466 billion implies Q3 operating cash flow of $9.631 billion. Subtracting $19.593 billion of cash PP&E purchases yields negative $9.962 billion. This calculation excludes product rebates, finance-lease principal and other investing flows.
Does a missing SPCX 13F position mean institutions own no shares?
No. BasisPilot’s tracked managers are only a subset of institutions. An absent matching position indicates a coverage gap, while Form 13F itself reports delayed quarter-end holdings rather than real-time trading.
What should SPCX investors monitor next?
Monitor billable compute utilization and contract durability, Starlink subscribers and ARPU, Space segment profitability, cash collection relative to capital spending, and acquisition-related dilution. These are research checkpoints, not a price target.
Is adjusted EBITDA the same as shareholder cash flow?
No. Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $8.809 billion, a non-GAAP measure. It excludes costs including depreciation, stock compensation and interest, and does not deduct capital spending. It should be read alongside GAAP earnings and a defined cash-flow calculation.
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Provenance
Sources and methodology
Primary SEC filings and issuer releases take precedence. Financial, market, ownership and page-update dates are shown separately, while historical values retain their original reporting period.