ELI LILLY AND COMPANY · NYSE: LLY
Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Research
Eli Lilly’s growth increasingly depends on turning demand for its metabolic medicines into durable earnings and cash. Q2 2026 revenue rose 48%, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, while realized prices fell and acquired R&D weighed on EPS. This research separates product growth, profit quality and reinvestment before the October 29 Q3 release.
- Latest financial period
- Q2 2026
- Latest filing
- Aug 5, 2026
- Research updated
- Oct 23, 2026
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Reported evidence
Latest LLY financial snapshot
Q2 2026 · filed Aug 5, 202602
Latest filing analysis
What changed in the latest reported period
Q2 2026 revenue rose 48% to $22.974 billion. Worldwide volume increased 60%, partly offset by a 13% decline in realized prices; demand growth and pricing power are different questions.
Mounjaro revenue reached $9.943 billion and Zepbound reached $4.928 billion. Together they represented a calculated 64.7% of revenue and 84.8% of the year-over-year revenue increase.
Reported gross margin was 85.8%, operating income was $8.978 billion and net income was $7.095 billion. Reported diluted EPS of $7.94 differs from non-GAAP EPS of $8.38.
Both EPS measures included $3.03 per share of acquired in-process R&D charges, versus $0.14 a year earlier. Non-GAAP EPS is not automatically an acquisition-charge-free earnings measure.
The August 5 outlook put 2026 revenue at $85–87 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $35.50–36.50. These are dated management forecasts, not realized results; Q3 earnings are scheduled for October 29.
03
BasisPilot
LLY: can GLP-1 growth sustain earnings and cash returns?
Growth is increasingly concentrated
Mounjaro and Zepbound generated a combined $14.871 billion of Q2 revenue. Their calculated 64.7% revenue share and 84.8% contribution to the revenue increase show how much the group depends on the franchise. Demand for other medicines cannot be inferred from the group growth rate.
Volume growth is not pricing power
Worldwide volume rose 60%, while realized prices fell 13%. China reimbursement expanded Mounjaro access but reduced realized prices outside the U.S.; U.S. rebate-estimate adjustments also softened the reported price decline. Track net sales per treatment, access and mix alongside prescription demand.
Manufacturing must produce economic supply
Lilly announced an additional $4.5 billion commitment to Indiana manufacturing sites in the August release. A commitment is not the quarter’s cash capex or immediately available output. Commissioning, approvals, utilization and production cost determine how much investment becomes profitable supply.
Commercial products and pipeline options differ
The Q2 filing records Foundayo’s U.S. obesity launch and $98 million of sales. Retatrutide’s registration plan was still forward-looking in the August update. An October 1 Foundayo analysis concerns predicted long-term disease risk, which is different from observed outcome events or a new regulatory approval.
The next earnings release is a checkpoint
Lilly confirmed Q3 results for October 29, with the call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. Compare the new volume/pricing mix, product launches, R&D charges and cash conversion against the dated Q2 evidence. Q3 pre-release charge estimates are not a complete Q3 income statement.
04
Revenue mix
How Eli Lilly and Company makes money
This is a product-revenue view, not a set of separate operating segments. Mounjaro, Zepbound and Foundayo are shown individually; the calculated residual contains all other medicines, collaboration and other revenue. The four categories reconcile to $22.974 billion without adding broad therapeutic groups a second time. A new product with no prior-year sales has no meaningful percentage-growth comparison.
05
Cash flow and capital allocation
Lilly cash generation: keep the period and acquisition costs visible
First-half cash is not a quarterly run rate
The 10-Q reports $16.023 billion of operating cash flow and $5.259 billion of property and equipment purchases for the six months ended June 30. Their difference, $10.764 billion, is an analyst-defined simplified cash-flow measure for H1, not a reported Q2 figure or a forecast of the next six months.
Acquisitions compete for the same cash
The same six-month statement includes $9.805 billion paid for acquisitions, net of cash acquired, and $3.486 billion of in-process R&D purchases. These are separate investing outflows, not deductions already included in the simplified operating-cash-minus-capex figure. Evaluating funding needs requires reading all of them together.
Adjusted EPS retains a significant charge
Reported Q2 EPS was $7.94 and non-GAAP EPS was $8.38; both included $3.03 per share of acquired IPR&D. Non-GAAP adjustments principally address amortization, special charges and investment gains here. Acquiring future products has an economic cost even if an analyst separately models an earnings figure before those charges.
Guidance has a date and a definition
The August 5 outlook was $85–87 billion of full-year revenue and $35.50–36.50 of non-GAAP EPS. It already reflected Q2 acquired IPR&D; it is not an acquisition-free earnings base. Later business-development charges and the October 29 update can change the outlook. These ranges are management forecasts, not achieved results.
06
Historical filings
LLY earnings history
| Period | Revenue | YoY | EPS | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $23B | 47.7% | 7.94 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| CY2026Q1 | $19.8B | 55.5% | 8.26 | Apr 30, 2026 |
Q2 uses the August 5 release and 10-Q. The earlier Q1 snapshot retains its original data and source date. Earnings-table figures are quarterly; the cash-flow discussion explicitly uses six-month H1 figures. All amounts are USD, and non-GAAP EPS is identified separately from reported EPS.
07
Valuation context
What would justify Lilly’s valuation?
LLY’s valuation depends on durable cash earnings from marketed medicines plus uncertain future pipeline returns. The following are operating assumptions, not a live P/E multiple, calculated fair value or price target.
Franchise duration and access
Test how long growth can persist as competitors, payer negotiations and pricing change. More patients served can coexist with lower net prices. A valuation that extrapolates current growth indefinitely would miss both a larger accessible market and the concessions needed to serve it.
Investment-adjusted earnings
Consider research, manufacturing and business-development costs alongside margins. Multiplying a single quarterly EPS by four ignores launch timing, rebate adjustments and acquired R&D. A forward multiple also needs a date-matched market price and a clearly defined EPS base, neither of which is supplied as a current quote here.
Risk-weighted pipeline value
Trial success, submission, approval, reimbursement and profitable launch are separate milestones. Pipeline revenue should be weighted for those risks rather than counted as established sales. New oral or next-generation products may expand the franchise while also shifting sales away from existing brands.
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SEC 13F
Institutional ownership
No matching position is available in BasisPilot's current 13F manager coverage.
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BasisPilot Insights
Latest Eli Lilly and Company research
10
Decision support
LLY: what could weaken the investment case?
Mounjaro and Zepbound concentration makes payer restrictions, competitive launches and changes in net pricing unusually important to group results.
Favorable rebate and discount estimate changes can help a reported quarter without establishing a sustainable price trend; later true-ups may move in the opposite direction.
Manufacturing build-outs face commissioning, regulatory, quality and utilization risks. Spending commitments do not guarantee the timing or economics of saleable output.
Clinical results, approval timing and label scope can disappoint; predicted-risk analyses and successful trials are not interchangeable with demonstrated commercial returns.
Acquisitions and development milestones can create recurring charges, large cash outflows, integration costs and financing needs even during rapid revenue growth.
Patent challenges, policy changes, safety findings, product liability and counterfeit or unauthorized products can affect demand, access and franchise durability.
11
FAQ
LLY investor questions
What are Lilly’s latest reported earnings?
The latest complete earnings period reviewed is Q2 2026, ended June 30 and released August 5. Revenue was $22.974 billion, net income was $7.095 billion and reported diluted EPS was $7.94. Q3 results are scheduled for October 29, 2026.
How important are Mounjaro and Zepbound to LLY?
Q2 worldwide sales were $9.943 billion and $4.928 billion respectively. Their combined $14.871 billion equals 64.7% of Lilly revenue and 84.8% of the year-over-year revenue increase, calculated from reported product sales. Concentration supports growth but raises exposure to pricing, access and competition.
Did Lilly raise prices to produce its 48% growth?
No. Lilly reported 60% worldwide volume growth, partly offset by a 13% decline in realized prices. In the U.S., the reported 3% price decline benefited from rebate and discount estimate adjustments; excluding them, Lilly estimated a decline of approximately 9%.
Does Lilly’s non-GAAP EPS exclude acquired IPR&D?
No. Both reported EPS of $7.94 and non-GAAP EPS of $8.38 included $3.03 per share of acquired IPR&D in Q2. The non-GAAP reconciliation adjusts other items, so its definition must be checked before using it in valuation.
Is the $10.764 billion cash-flow figure a Q2 number?
No. It is a simplified first-half calculation: $16.023 billion of operating cash flow minus $5.259 billion of property and equipment purchases for six months ended June 30. It excludes acquisition and cash IPR&D purchases, other investing flows and financing. It is not a company-reported Q2 free-cash-flow figure.
Are Foundayo and retatrutide at the same commercial stage?
No. Lilly’s Q2 10-Q says Foundayo (orforglipron) launched in the U.S. for obesity and generated $98 million of Q2 sales; type 2 diabetes submissions are a separate indication. The August 5 update described retatrutide as a development program with a planned Q1 2027 U.S. filing. Trial data and filing plans do not equal regulatory approval or sales.
Are LLY institutional holdings current trading positions?
No. Form 13F shows delayed quarter-end positions for qualifying managers and securities. BasisPilot’s coverage is partial and does not reveal real-time trades, complete institutional ownership or true historical purchase costs.
Are revenue guidance and a pipeline filing plan guaranteed earnings?
No. The $85–87 billion revenue range is the August 5 full-year management outlook. Filing plans, manufacturing capacity and clinical milestones have separate execution and regulatory conditions. None establishes a guaranteed stock return or substitutes for the next reported results.
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Provenance
Sources and methodology
Primary SEC filings and issuer releases take precedence. Financial, market, ownership and page-update dates are shown separately, while historical values retain their original reporting period.